The fresh alliance between Egypt and Turkey, which aims to mend a prolonged rift over Middle Eastern affairs, is now confronting its first significant challenge.
This new partnership, forged to overcome past disputes, is being tested by a deepening political crisis in Libya tied to the control of its vast oil resources.
The fallout between Egypt and Turkey traces back to the aftermath of the 2011 Arab Spring.
Tensions escalated when Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi's coup ousted his predecessor, Mohamed Morsi, who was an ally of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
After years of strained relations, the two leaders recently met in Ankara, signing over 30 agreements aimed at boosting trade to $15 billion over the next five years.
Their renewed focus is on economic growth and regional conflicts, including the ongoing war in Gaza.
The Libyan Divide
However, experts warn that this renewed cooperation may be short-lived if Egypt and Turkey cannot align their strategies on Libya's complex political landscape.
Since the fall of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, Libya has been split between rival factions in the east and west.
Turkey has supported the Tripoli-based regime in the west, sending military aid in 2019 when Tripoli was under threat from Khalifa Haftar, a warlord backed by Egypt, the UAE, and Russia.
During their recent meeting, Sisi and Erdoğan agreed to put past differences over Libya behind them, but the specifics of how they plan to resolve these issues remain unclear.
The Current Crisis
The immediate issue stems from a recent dispute involving the Libyan central bank. Sadiq al-Kabir, the governor of the bank, was dismissed three weeks ago and has since fled to Turkey, claiming he feared for his life.
His removal was orchestrated by political bodies aligned with the Tripoli government led by Abdul Hamid Dabaiba. Kabir's dismissal has sparked a standoff, with eastern Libya demanding his reinstatement and accusing the move of being unconstitutional.
The central bank, managing Libya’s significant oil wealth and $80 billion in foreign reserves, is a crucial institution.
Dabaiba accused Kabir of channeling funds to the east and criticized his government's spending.
In response, many oilfields have been shut down, and international banks have frozen transactions involving the central bank.
International Reactions
The central bank's stability is vital, and Western powers have expressed concerns about Kabir's ousting, viewing him as a rare source of stability in a fractured country.
In light of this, Turkey’s head of intelligence, Ibrahim Kalin, has traveled to Tripoli to negotiate a resolution, possibly involving Kabir's return on an interim basis or the appointment of a new board.
Changing Dynamics
Alia Brahimi, a journalist and expert on Middle Eastern politics, notes that Libya’s internal conflicts are increasingly driven by elite families vying for economic resources, shifting the dynamics for Turkey.
The growing financial ties between Turkish and Libyan businesses, such as the construction of a major steel plant in Benghazi, suggest that Turkey may not be inclined to offer unqualified military support to Tripoli as it did in 2019.
The Path Forward
The UN and Western diplomats are urging a consensus solution to the Kabir crisis, likely involving his temporary return.
Observers warn that Libya is on the brink of collapse, with potential repercussions for migration and regional stability.
The lack of a comprehensive plan to address Libya's divisions, coupled with entrenched elite corruption, continues to undermine efforts to stabilize the country.
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